We all have our regrets in life.
I shouldn’t have given up my ticket for Glastonbury 2015 — I missed seeing my favourite band - the Foo Fighters - playing at my favourite music festival.
I shouldn’t have leased a new Audi Q7 in 2017. For three years it was like having a second mortgage to pay, a millstone around my neck (albeit a very comfortable and fast millstone, in orca black with enormous alloy wheels and a killer sound system).
I should have made the switch from Windows PCs to Apple Macs a lot earlier in life. I could have saved myself years of time waiting for them to start, update and shut-down.
Perhaps most significantly, I should have invested in Bitcoin sooner.
I finally broke the inertia and hopped onto the Bitcoin bus in 2021 — I feared I’d bought at the top of its bull run at $23,000 but carried on dripping in small investments throughout the year - remembering only to stake what I could afford to lose if it ever went to zero.
I’ve accumulated a relatively small amount in real terms, certainly much less than a whole Bitcoin, but I’m excited by the notional 61% profit I’d have made if I’d sold at its 2021 peak.
I’d like to think I’m writing this piece to my former self in 2017. Even better would be to catch myself in 2010 or 2011 when a whole Bitcoin could be snapped up for between 10 cents and $10. Back then, even as a financially challenged, divorced single dad I could still have found enough cash for a few BTC.
Acknowledging that it’s too late to change myself, I want to persuade you that even if you haven’t considered it before, today is the day you should speculatively buy yourself just a few dollars worth (or pounds, euros, yen or whatever else) of Bitcoin.
What goes up…
It’s fair to say that Bitcoin has had a rocky start to 2022. It seems to have become correlated with tech stocks - meaning that when news in the economy causes Facebook, Google and Amazon stocks to rise or fall in value, Bitcoin seems to do the same. It’s a sign of maturity, but it makes the Bitcoin rollercoaster even more violent than it was.
With the Fed announcing that they’re starting to enact measures to counter the record levels of inflation, tech stocks (and Bitcoin) have reacted with shock.
The effect has been for the prices of Bitcoin to drop to around $43k per Bitcoin (at the time of writing). For context, on November 8th 2021, it reached an all-time high of over $67k.
Having held Bitcoin for a little over 12 months I feel qualified to tell you that this is nothing new.
Little more than a month after I first invested in Jan 2021 at $30k, the price had gone up to $50k+.
In March it broke through $60k.
By July it was back around $30k.
This is just Bitcoin, folks. It’s a rollercoaster ride, but the long term trend - ever since it’s existed - has been upwards.
Which brings me back to the point of the story - the time to buy is now. Yes, it will go up and down, but the long-term trends and has always been to be upwards.
As it matures and more institutions adopt it and nations accept it (even if begrudgingly), the price will continue to climb.
Still not convinced, eh?
Who wants to buy-high, sell-low?
Even back in February 2021 when the price almost doubled in a month, high profile Bitcoin bulls were emphasising that the time was still right to get involved. Cameron Winkelvoss made a few helpful comparisons to past innovations throughout history:
And this…
And finally, this:
His point was well made — if you consider Bitcoin to be similarly paradigm-shifting as were the first aeroplane, the first automobile, and some of the biggest tech giants of recent years then there is never a bad time to get educated and to take a stake.
It’s still early in the life of Bitcoin.
Those who take a chance on new innovations at the very start, will enjoy the bragging rights and smug satisfaction that come from trailblazing (when it works out). If the innovation goes to the wall, they lick their wounds in private and we never speak of it again.
Those who follow along years later (like I did) inevitably miss out on the early gains, and may even feel scared of being late to the party, but should that really be enough to convince themselves not to get involved?
It wasn’t in my case and I’m pleased to have made the leap, even though my gains remain unrealised since I’m just buying and holding (or HODLing as it’s known in Bitcoin circles - Holding On for Dear Life).
Whether you decide to take the leap now, later or never is of course up to you.
I’d love it to drop through the floor
What I’d actually love as a believer in the long-term benefits and future of Bitcoin, is a healthy dip in price so I could buy more at less of a premium.
While the markets have obliged on a small scale at various points in the last 12-months, I doubt my dream of owning a whole Bitcoin will be coming true any time soon.
If there’s one thing that would have broken my resolve to first invest, it would have been trying to time the market, and to buy when prices were low.
I’d be a dribbling wreck by now - and I still wouldn’t have invested.
A correction in price, not a bursting of the bubble
Even the strongest bull markets don’t continue on a steep upward trajectory forever.
Markets move in cycles of up and down. This behaviour is exhibited by all assets, not just cryptocurrency. What matters most is the long-term trend (measured over years and decades, not days or months).
It’s accepted investment logic but for some reason those who are most skeptical about Bitcoin deliberately misinterpret this or think doesn’t apply to Bitcoin. They point to the volatility of cryptocurrency (inherently a short-term feature) as a unique frailty of Bitcoin that undermines its viability as a long-term asset.
They neglect to acknowledge that Bitcoin too is best judged by long term trends.
In the words of investment luminary and renowned Bitcoin skeptic, Warren Buffett:
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.”
His logic applies solidly to Bitcoin too, not that he’d dare to admit it.
Bitcoin has gained a reputation for being the fodder of day-traders looking to make a quick buck or two, but there are many more who are committed to buying and hodling for the long-term, just like me.
Think long-term, big picture
The long-term trend in the price of Bitcoin seems evident:
It doesn’t mean there won’t be radical drops in future — what matters most is the long-term trend. Institutional investors like MicroStrategy and Tesla (in spite of the flip-flop mood-swings of Elon Musk) have begun using it as a hedge against inflation and long-term store of value.
Financial institutions like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, BNY Mellon and many others are joining the ranks of the old-school establishment who are jumping on the Bitcoin bus, or at least entertaining the idea of its long-term existence.
It seems to me that even the most hardened of skeptics must be struggling to maintain their ire in the light of such statements from the ‘grown ups’ of the financial establishment.
The more you learn, the more you earn
Since getting involved with Bitcoin I’m doing all I can to get educated about the subject. It seems smart to learn as much as I can, not just about the technicalities but also to understand the opinions and arguments presented by those who love it and those who hate it. To quote another Buffet-ism:
“The most important investment you can make is in yourself.”
In the absence of more disposable cash to invest in Bitcoin I figure that the time is well-spent investing in my learning on the subject. Summarising my learnings so far, particularly regarding the criminality and environmental objections that are often cited, and Bitcoin mining has helped me embed the learning.
It’s made me even more resolute about having made the right decision - my only regret is that I didn’t do this years back.
Final thought
The conclusion of most of the pieces I’ve written about Bitcoin shares a common theme — the need for collective enlightenment.
Believe it’s worth investing in? — learn more about it.
Believe it’s environmentally damaging? — learn more about it.
Believe it’s a tool of criminality? — learn more about it.
Believe it’s not really a currency? — you get the picture.
The only way to get comfortable with any idea that we want to prove, disprove or merely tolerate is to learn more. With greater knowledge and insight we are best placed to make an informed decision at least.
The alternative? To resort to mainstream media and bluster on social media and to form our opinions based on that.
Those who are anti-Bitcoin will feel that it’s a bad idea to invest now, either as it means buying at top dollar just before the bubble bursts. They may point to recent drops in value as a sign of bigger drops to come.
Those who are pro-Bitcoin will be convinced this is just the start of big things and that future gains are assured, just as downward movements in price are inevitable.
As a HODLer for the longterm I’m ambivalent about what happens in the next few months or even years. I’ll continue to buy a little each month, letting dollar-cost averaging smooth the effects of short-term fluctuations. I will secretly hope for a few drops so that I grow my holding without always buying at a premium, and will hope the long-term trend continues.
If it all crashes to zero (which I don’t believe it will) then I’ll be willing to admit I was wrong and won’t have bet the farm on it anyway.
If it pays off then maybe in a few years I can buy another Audi, or pay Dave Grohl to perform at my 80th birthday party if we’re both still alive and kicking by then!
If you’re persuaded and want to make your first SAFE investment in Bitcoin using market leading tools and services, you can follow the exact process I used - described in this piece.
The Exact Process I Used to Buy My First Bitcoin in Under An Hour
Note: This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice. Consult a financial professional before making any major financial decisions.